Tesla plans to begin delivering its much-delayed and highly anticipated Cybertruck pickup truck to customers on Thursday, moving into one of the automotive industry’s most lucrative but competitive segments.
With its stainless steel body and sharp edges, the Cybertruck sets itself apart from the pickup trucks from Ford Motor, General Motors and Ram that dominate the market. It’s Tesla’s first all-new passenger vehicle in more than three years, but it comes to market long after other automakers began selling battery-powered pickup trucks.
That has analysts wondering who will buy the Cybertruck. Will it take customers away from traditional automakers, appeal to a different audience, or become a costly flop? Tesla said hundreds of thousands of people have made $100 refundable deposits on Cybertrucks. However, there is no guarantee that these reservations will result in sales.
“It really begs the question, ‘What kind of customers is Tesla looking for?’” said Ben Rose, president of Battle Road Research, a firm that tracks electric vehicle and technology companies, and expects Tesla stock to outperform the market. “It looks like something that was lowered from the lunar module to collect rocks on the moon.”
The vehicle, first publicly displayed in 2019, suffered from production problems stemming from its odd design and choice of stainless steel instead of the lighter steel or aluminum typically used in cars and trucks. Sales have been delayed by more than two years, and Tesla boss Elon Musk has warned investors that the company may not be able to produce the truck in large numbers until 2025.
“There will be tremendous challenges in achieving mass production with Cybertruck and making Cybertruck cash flow positive,” Musk said in October. He sounded more optimistic on Wednesday, saying during an appearance at the New York Times DealBook Summit: “It will be by far the biggest product launch ever in the world this year.”
There is also a lot at stake for traditional car manufacturers. Americans buy 2.5 million pickup trucks a year, and those sales are a major source of profits for Ford, GM and Stellantis, which owns Ram, Jeep and Chrysler. In the United States, pickup trucks are often sold as luxury vehicles. Well-heeled Europeans or Asians are more likely to buy sedans and sport utility vehicles from Mercedes-Benz, BMW or Audi. Many wealthy Americans buy Ford F-150s with 18-speaker sound systems and heated steering wheels.
Tesla is expected to announce pricing for the Cybertruck on Thursday afternoon at an event in Austin, Texas, where the vehicle is built. Fully equipped versions with all-wheel drive and additional bells and technology are expected to cost around $80,000 or more. Tesla is expected to eventually offer a two-wheel-drive version for around $50,000, but it could be several years before more affordable models come to market.
The first buyers are likely to be wealthy tech experts and collectors, Mr. Rose said. The Cybertruck probably won’t be as attractive to fleet operators of companies like utilities or construction companies. The model is also unlikely to be affordable or practical for landscape gardeners, drywallers and other small business owners.
This is a relief for traditional car manufacturers. About a fifth of the F-150s Ford sells go to commercial or government customers. Ford’s Pro division, which focuses on commercial customers, makes much more money as a percentage of sales than the division that sells gasoline vehicles to private customers. (The division that sells electric vehicles to consumers has been losing money.)
Some companies purchase pickup trucks without a bed and instead install special boxes or platforms tailored to their needs. With the Cybertruck’s one-piece body, this will be impossible.
Even when companies purchase trucks with standard beds, they often add accessories like tool boxes or ladder racks that wouldn’t fit in the Cybertruck. (Most pickups from other manufacturers look and function much the same, so they can accommodate these extensions.)
So far, sales of electric pickups and other vehicles to commercial customers have been modest. But Ford sees the potential to dominate a fast-growing market where there won’t be much competition from Tesla. Ford’s E-Transit electric vans have a 50 percent market share in the U.S. and Europe, Ford Pro CEO Ted Cannis said in an interview. The electric version of the F-150, known as the Lightning, has almost no competition among commercial customers, he added.
Ford can generate additional revenue from commercial and government customers by selling them services such as software that tracks their employees’ locations and creates efficient routes. Ford will also help customers set up charging stations for fleets of pickup trucks and vans. “We need to make the transition as easy as possible,” Mr. Cannis said.
There is no evidence that Tesla plans to provide similar services.
Many aspects of the Cybertruck were a mystery. Ahead of Thursday’s event, investors and Tesla fans were waiting for news on whether the Cybertruck would have sockets for power tools, for example, or be able to provide homes with backup power, a feature available on the F-150 Lightning.
Electric pickups have been available since late 2021, when Rivian, a young electric vehicle company, began selling the R1T. Ford began selling the F-150 Lightning in 2022. GM began selling an electric version of its Silverado pickup in limited numbers this year.
So far, buyer reaction has been mixed. Electric pickups accounted for just 3 percent of the electric vehicle market in the first nine months of 2023. And only 2 percent of all pickups sold in the U.S. were electric, according to Kelley Blue Book and Battle Road estimates.
But sales are growing faster than the overall auto market, although the pace has slowed recently. Sales of the F-150 Lightning rose 40 percent to more than 12,000 vehicles in the first nine months of the year, according to Kelley Blue Book. Sales of Rivian pickups rose 28 percent to more than 14,000 vehicles.