USD/JPY, GOLD PRICE FORECAST
- Gold price is rising but fails to overcome cluster resistance
- USD/JPY lacks directional conviction as the pair trades slightly below the 200-day simple moving average
- This article examines the technical profile of gold and USD/JPY, focusing on key price thresholds that may be relevant heading into the final trading sessions of 2023
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Most read: US dollar in risky waters, technical developments in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold
Gold prices (XAU/USD) trended higher on Tuesday in weak post-Christmas trading, rising about 0.7% to $2,065, helped by the decline in the US dollar, which was slowly approaching its lowest level since late July.
After Tuesday’s rise, XAU/USD has reached the threshold of a key resistance area that extends between $2,070 and $2,075. Previous attempts to break this limit sustainably have been unsuccessful, meaning history could repeat itself this time.
In case of bearish rejection from the current level, support lies at $2,050, followed by $2,010. The bulls will have to defend this ground with all their might – if they fail to do so, the downward momentum could be revived and the foundation for a decline towards $1,990 could be laid. If there is further weakness, the focus turns to $1,975.
On the other hand, if buyers manage to push prices well above $2,070/$2,075, the bullish momentum could gain momentum and create the right conditions for the precious metal to start consolidating above $2,100. Sustained strength could pave the way for a retest of the all-time high $2,150.
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Change into |
Longs |
Short pants |
OI |
| Daily | 1 % | 9% | 4% |
| Weekly | -2% | 9% | 2% |
What does this mean for price developments?
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TECHNICAL CHART OF GOLD PRICE
Gold price chart created with TradingView
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USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
USD/JPY rose slightly on Tuesday but failed to regain its 200-day simple moving average. If prices remain persistently below this indicator, selling pressure could resurface and gain momentum, paving the way for an eventual decline towards the December low of 140.95. While this technical area could provide support during a retracement, a breakout could steer the pair towards 139.50.
On the other hand, if buyers take control and push the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA, resistance lies at 144.80. Overcoming this hurdle will be challenging for the bulls, but a successful breakout could create favorable conditions for an uptrend towards the 146.00 level. With further strength all eyes will be on 147.20.
USD/JPY TECHNICAL CHART
USD/JPY chart created with TradingView