The record gold rush could intensify by the end of the year.
According to NewEdge Wealth’s Ben Emons, the last month of the year typically creates a greater appetite for the yellow metal.
“It was very consistent every December. “It’s been a pretty strong performance for gold – especially if there’s a stock market rally in November,” the firm’s head of fixed income told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.
The price of gold reached a new record high on Friday. It closed the day up nearly 2% at $2,089.70 an ounce.
Emons cited the economic and geopolitical backdrop as other positive catalysts for gold.
“Next year there is uncertainty. We have elections. We don’t know what will happen. We may get a recession, we may not,” Emons said. “At the same time, gold rallies when there is some risk appetite in the markets and then real interest rates and interest rates fall. That gives gold a really good push to break out.”
In a note to clients this week, Emons wrote that months are a “rare combination” for both gold and stocks. Gold gained 3%, while the Dow and S&P 500 each gained nearly 9% in November.
“[It] “The trend tends to occur when markets are pricing in large easing cycles,” he wrote. “Currently, this is occurring in a mild form, putting the spotlight on gold’s seasonal fluctuations.”
Emons expects the strength to continue next year.
“Central banks are once again outbidding gold amid dwindling supply, likely setting the metal up for a big break heading into 2100…Laggards like utilities have a chance to take market leadership by early 2024,” Emons also wrote.
Fast Money trader Guy Adami also sees gold looking bright based on the dollar’s recent performance.
“If interest rates continue to fall, the dollar will fall. This will be a tailwind for gold,” he said. “Gold is about to make a huge breakout higher.”
As of Friday’s close, gold was up more than 14% so far this year.
Originally posted 2023-12-02 17:10:30.